Societal preparedness facing war: Predicting military and civilian responses to a war scenario |
| Prosjektnummer: 8351 |
| Periode: 2026 – 2028 |
| Beskrivelse: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has made clear that national security can never be taken for granted. War in Europe’s own backyard has revived questions about how societies mobilize when threatened. Across the continent, governments are reexamining how to build and sustain societal readiness for conflict. At the center of such efforts lies a fundamental question of human agency: are citizens willing to defend their state when it matters most? In Norway, national security planning is anchored in the principle of total defence, which integrates military and civilian resources to protect the nation. This approach rests on a critical assumption — that citizens’ willingness to defend the state depends on trust in democratic institutions (Office of the Prime Minister, 2025). Existing research suggests that regime type shapes both fighting capacity and resolve: democracies tend to perform better on the battlefield, even after accounting for material resources, because they cultivate legitimacy, morale, and social cohesion (Reiter & Stam, 1998). Yet we still know little about how institutional trust and democratic attitudes translate into citizens’ readiness to fight. Two global trends heighten the urgency of this question. First, studies point to a worldwide decline in citizens’ willingness to fight (Inglehart, 2020), with uneven national trajectories. Although Norway continues to score highly, the resilience of such commitment remains uncertain. Second, democratic attitudes appear to be eroding (Dahlum et al., 2024), particularly among young men (Milosav et al., 2025). International research also suggests that mandatory military service may undermine institutional trust (Bove, Di Leo, & Giani, 2024), while individuals with autocratic attitudes can diffuse illiberal norms even within democratic settings (Dahlum et al., 2024). For Norwegian defence planning, these developments raise a critical question: will citizens’ commitment to defend democracy endure if the prospect of war becomes real? This project advances knowledge directly relevant to the Ministry of Defence’s strategic priorities by analyzing the civilian and social dimensions of national security — domains where legitimacy, resilience, and mobilization are decisive for an effective total defence. |
| Prosjektleder: Andreas Kotsadam |
| Deltakere: Andreas Kotsadam |
